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Scene above:  Constitution Island, where Revolutionary War forts still exist, as photographed from Trophy Point, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York
 

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MARCH 6,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MAJOR PANDER – Bernie Sanders took the pander prize at tonight's Dem debate with Queen Hillary.  From The Hill:   Bernie Sanders stumbled on a question at Sunday's debate over whether white Americans can empathize with blacks, stating that white people don't know what it's like to be poor.  "When you are white, you don’t know what it’s like to be living in a ghetto, you don’t know what it’s like to be poor, you don’t know what it’s like to be hassled when you are walking down a street or dragged out of a car," Sanders said when asked about his personal racial blind spots.   Talk about over the top.  Apparently Bernie never saw those classic photos taken by the WPA of whites living in poverty during the Depression.  And did Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty only seek to help black folks?  The live audience for tonight's debate was predominantly black, and this kind of pandering doesn't help them at all.

AND YET... – Bernie is doing better than expected.  From CBS:   PORTLAND, Maine -- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders swept to victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Maine's Democratic presidential caucuses on Sunday, riding a heavy turnout that left some participants waiting for hours to vote in the state.  Sanders, who told supporters he'd win if there was a strong turnout, beat Clinton by a margin of nearly 2 to 1 in voting in hundreds of communities across Maine.  Is this a function of Bernie's popularity or Hillary's weakness, or a combination of both?  Look, no one seriously believes that Bernie will get the nomination.  Hillary continues to build delegate strength, especially in large states with big minority populations.  But Bernie, an obscure senator from the People's Republic of Vermont, is giving her a run for her money, and reminding her that she's unloved by large portions of her own party.  Should the FBI come down hard on Hillary, will she have that many defenders?

BLAIR WORRIES ABOUT TRUMP – Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has always been an ally of the United States, expressed open worry about Donald Trump, as did Angela Merkel.  From The Hill:  Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair expressed concern about the United States' presidential race on Sunday, saying that European observers are anxious about the prospect of Donald Trump.   In a radio interview with John Catsimatidis, Blair was asked his opinion on the presidential race and responded by laughing. Catsimatidis asked if he was laughing because of the "entertainment value" of Trump's candidacy.
"The entertainment value is high, and there is a certain, I have to say, level of anxiety as to what's happening to America, the most powerful country in the world -- it really matters," Blair responded.  He added that he remains optimistic about the outcome of the campaign.  "I've got long experience with American politics now, and in the end you usually end up in a situation where things right themselves and correct themselves, so let's wait and see what happens," Blair said.  I think Blair means well, and many of us Yanks worry as well.  But I don't think Americans, in their current mood, will be swayed much by foreign opinion.

March 6, 2016        Permalink 

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TRUMP WARNS OF THIRD PARTY – AT 1:44 P.M. ET:  In this he may be right.  The "third party" possibility is very much alive.  From The Politico: 

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. —Donald Trump demanded that Republicans unify behind his campaign on Saturday night, arguing that conservatives who don’t back his campaign should fear the consequences of a third-party bid.

In another boisterous victory speech-press conference combo, Trump called on Sen. Marco Rubio to leave the race and suggested that he might not even bother to campaign if the “#NeverTrump” movement challenges him in the general election. Such a move, he warned, would guarantee Hillary Clinton a chance to replace the late conservative justice Antonin Scalia.

“If they run a third party or an independent party, if they do that, it will make it impossible for the Republican candidate, on the assumption it’s me, to win,” Trump said. “The Democrats would have an absolute free run. Probably you wouldn’t even campaign because it would be impossible to win.”
He added, “As a party we should come together and stop this foolishness.”

Trump delayed his remarks in West Palm Beach, Florida, for nearly two hours until word came that he was projected to win the primary in Kentucky. (The Associated Press projected his win in Louisiana shortly after the polls closed at 9 p.m.) When he did take to the podium, Trump said the race for the Republican nomination is down to him and Sen. Ted Cruz.

COMMENT:  Trump himself could run as an independent candidate if, as he puts it, he's not "treated properly."  It's clear that a number of establishment conservatives are talking third party, and we hear of possible independent bids by Mike Bloomberg and others.

In 1992 an independent bid by Ross Perot took enough votes from President H.W. Bush to give the White House to Bill Clinton, whose wife, ironically, may receive the same benefit this year.

March 6, 2016       Permalink

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NANCY REAGAN DEAD AT 94 – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:   She served as first lady for her husband's two presidential terms.  With her at his side he became the most consequential president of our times.

She was never that popular, never as active or outgoing as, say, Eleanor Roosevelt, or as glamorous as Jacqueline Kennedy.  But her devotion to her husband and his well being was touching, and continued until his death.  She maintained a dignified, reserved presence in the years since leaving the White House.   From Fox: 

Nancy Reagan, the widow of President Ronald Reagan and passionately devoted keeper of his flame, died Sunday at 94, Fox News has confirmed.

Her cause of death was not immediately released, however, Reagan, whose husband died in 2004, had appeared frail after suffering several falls in recent years. In May 2012 it was disclosed she had broken several ribs in a fall at her Los Angeles home six weeks earlier.

Although she initially worked as an actress, the former first lady was, first and foremost, Mrs. Ronald Reagan.

"My life really began when I married my husband," Nancy Reagan once said and for 52 years of marriage they were a fiercely close and devoted couple.

"Thank God we found each other," she said in a 1998 interview. "Can't imagine life without him."

Nancy Davis Reagan was born July 6, 1921 in New York City as Anne Frances Robbins. Her father was Kenneth Seymour Robbins, a used car salesman, and her mother Edith P. Luckett, was an actress. She became known as Nancy as a child.

Her parents divorced when she was young and her mother remarried Dr. Loyal Davis, a Chicago neurosurgeon, who adopted her.

She took his name and attended private school in Chicago, followed by Smith College, where she majored in drama.

COMMENT:  Her death will remind us of the Reagan era.  Reagan came to office laughed at by many as a warmed-over movie actor, and feared by the Republican establishment as a man who might actually mean what he said.  When he left office, the Cold War was essentially over, ended largely on our terms, and without firing a shot. 

Reagan's great gift domestically, in my view, was to restore American morale, which had taken a beating during the upheavals of the sixties and early seventies, and had shrunk during the administration of Jimmy Carter. 

March 6, 2016       Permalink

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POLL BLIP? – AT 10:55 A.M.  ET:  We reported last night on a new poll in the critical state of Michigan, which votes Tuesday, showing John Kasich two points ahead of Donald Trump, who'd been leading in the state.  But the poll was immediately questioned because Trump's previous lead had been YUGE!

New polls out this morning suggest that, yes, the Kasich "lead" may simply be a polling blip.  From the Columbus Dispatch: 

But two Michigan polls released Sunday morning suggested the good-news Kasich poll may be an outlier. CBS and NBC-Wall Street Journal polls showed near-identical results. The average: Trump, 40 percent; Cruz, 23 percent; Rubio, 17 percent; and Kasich, 14 percent, leaving him in danger of not receiving any Michigan delegates.

COMMENT:  Yeah, I'd imagine the good news for Kasich wasn't real.  However, you never know.  Ted Cruz's victories in two states yesterday were surprises, and defied the polls.  And Cruz's very strong finishes in two other states were also surprises.  There are some indications that Trump's behavior over the last week, plus the denunciation of him by Mitt Romney, are having some effect.

March 6,  2016     Permalink

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